Crowds Believe in You: Online Prediction Markets Overestimate How Often People Achieve Their Own Goals
Zihan Chen, Lei Nico Zheng, Di Zhu
AI 速览：基于 Manifold 上 6,150 个自我目标预测市场的订单重建，作者报告自我市场比外部事件市场更常被高估，且纠偏信息主要掌握在当事人手中。
People increasingly share personal goals online and invite others to forecast them. Research on the planning fallacy finds that observers predict a person's behavior less optimistically than the person does, and prediction markets aggregate such judgments, harnessing the wisdom of crowds. We study 6,150 prediction markets on Manifold in which 1,660 users asked about their own futures ("Will I ...?"), reconstruct every order and execution, and compare these self-markets with markets about external events. Self-markets resolved YES 4.4 percentage points less often than their final prices implied, whereas external markets were nearly calibrated (0.9 points); the difference was 2.2 points at the same price level and 1.9 points within creators who made both kinds of market. Absent when markets opened, the overstatement emerged within a day of trading, even where the person never traded, and peaked in the week before close. In a market's first day, observers moved external-market prices down toward the base rate, but moved self-market prices 3.6 points further toward YES, except in markets naming an outcome the person would not want, which were not overpriced. The correction came late and largely from the person, whose orders supplied 38% of the eventual movement toward the outcome in self-markets, against 9% in external markets. Because self-market prices mainly failed to separate successes from failures, a recalibration learned from earlier markets improved later forecasts by only 1.5%. Crowds believe in the futures people pose for themselves, and the information that would correct them lies with the person.
Distributional metrics such as Fréchet Audio Distance cannot score individual music clips and correlate poorly with human judgments, while the only per-sample learned metric achieving high human correlation is closed-source. We introduce MUQ-EVAL, an open-source per-sample quality metric for AIgenerated music built by training lightweight prediction heads on frozen MuQ-310M features using MusicEval, a dataset of generated clips from 31 text-to-music systems with expert quality ratings. Our simplest model, frozen features with attention pooling and a two-layer MLP, achieves system-level SRCC = 0.957 and utterance-level SRCC = 0.838 with human mean opinion scores. A systematic ablation over training objectives and adaptation strategies shows that no addition meaningfully improves the frozen baseline, indicating that frozen MuQ representations already capture quality-relevant information. Encoder choice is the dominant design factor, outweighing all architectural and training decisions. LoRA-adapted models trained on as few as 150 clips already achieve usable correlation, enabling personalized quality evaluators from individual listener annotations. A controlled degradation analysis reveals selective sensitivity to signal-level artifacts but insensitivity to musical-structural distortions. Our metric, MUQ-EVAL, is fully open-source, outperforms existing open per-sample metrics, and runs in real time on a single consumer GPU. Code, model weights, and evaluation scripts are available at https://github.com/dgtql/MuQ-Eval.
Generative AI now produces images and poems that people cannot reliably distinguish from human-made work, so people often judge for themselves who made a work. We examine how these perceived-authorship judgments relate to aesthetic preference. In a public online AI Art Turing Test, 11,123 people judged whether each of 50 pictures (26 AI-generated) was made by a human and were asked for their favourite. Among the 9,152 respondents who judged their favourite, a picture was 22.1 percentage points more likely to be judged human-made when it was the respondent's favourite, holding respondent and picture fixed. The association was similar for AI-generated and human-made favourites, was positive for all 50 pictures, and appeared under every reported detection strategy. Respondents most negative about AI art chose fewer AI-generated favourites (47% against 60% among the most positive) but more often believed them human-made, partly because others also judged those pictures human. As a result, in every opinion group a third to two fifths of respondents named an AI-generated favourite they believed human-made. A reanalysis of a published experiment on AI-generated poetry, in which 230 people rated each poem before judging its authorship, found the same pattern, although the AI poems were rated higher. When provenance is hidden, liking and perceived human authorship travel together, consistent with aesthetic response serving as evidence of a human maker and with beliefs about the maker shaping enjoyment. The findings qualify research on bias against AI art, which typically uses explicit labels, and inform AI disclosure policy.
Attack logs and red-team reports show targets the attacks used against them, to help them repair their defenses. Prompt injections against large language models (LLMs) are plain text, so such records also hand targets a working copy. Drawing on social learning theory and work on the victim-offender overlap, we study what targets do with that copy in Tensor Trust, an online game whose players defended LLM-guarded accounts, attacked one another's, and could read every attack they received. Using all 563,349 attack records, we compare each received attack with matched attacks that circulated among similar players at the same moment but never reached the target. Reuse mainly followed success: within a week, targets attacked other players with 10.0% of the attacks that had broken their defense, versus 0.03% of matched attacks (adjusted difference: 8.8-10.0 percentage points). Near-misses, whose replies began with "access granted" but that scored as failures, were reused about as rarely as failures: reuse tracked whether an attack paid off, not how its reply read, consistent with payoff-biased social learning. Breaches were also followed by defense changes, after which same-family attacks became 24.5 percentage points less successful against the target, relative to other defenders. Reuse came mainly from players already attacking, not newcomers. Previously received texts accounted for 23.2% of the successful hijacks we analyze. The attack history thus served both repair and reuse; we derive testable hypotheses for how AI security tools should disclose attacks, such as describing the technique without the full text.
Zihan Chen Singapore University of Technology and Design, Howard Hao Yang Zhejiang University, Tony Quek Singapore University of Technology and Design, Kai Fong Ernest Chong Singapore University of Technology and Design
Federated fine-tuning of large language models (LLMs) provides a privacy-preserving approach to deploying pervasive generative AI services, yet the substantial memory overhead of first-order (FO) gradient computation presents significant practical challenges. While zeroth-order (ZO) optimization methods offer memory-efficient alternatives, they remain susceptible to performance degradation brought by data heterogeneity. Specifically, direct ZO-for-FO substitution is incompatible with existing strategies tailored for cross-client discrepancies. In response, we propose a new federated LLM fine-tuning framework, with a holistic revamped design of the entire ZO gradient processing pipeline. Crucially, with our proposed global adaptive optimization and local personalized perturbation, we present a unified solution for incorporating ZO gradients in federated learning, from local personalized perturbation sampling and ZO gradient transmission, to global ZO gradient reconstruction and aggregation with adaptive momentum, thereby directly addressing the challenges of inefficiencies and cross-client discrepancies. Our convergence analysis and experiment results demonstrate the superiority of our proposed framework over diverse heterogeneous data settings, both in terms of generalization and efficiency.
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cs.CL
Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers) · 2026 · 正式发表
Zihan Chen University of Science and Technology of China, Yiming Zhang University of Science and Technology of China, Wenxiang Geng, Zenghui Ding Hefei Institute of Physical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yining Sun Institute of Intelligent Machines，Chinese Academy Of Sciences
Large Language Models (LLMs) aligned via outcome-based Reinforcement Learning (RL) frequently exhibit a critical failure mode: they achieve high performance on in-distribution benchmarks while demonstrating brittle reasoning capabilities on out-of-distribution (OOD) tasks. We term this phenomenon Reward-Induced Manifold Collapse. We establish a theoretical framework bridging Structural Causal Models (SCM) and the Information Bottleneck (IB) principle to explain this paradox. We define reasoning as a high-complexity causal process and shortcut learning as the exploitation of low-complexity spurious correlations. Under the implicit inductive bias of Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD), models optimized for outcome rewards are biased toward shortcut solutions whenever the training distribution allows for a “Markovian Screening” of the true causal mechanism. We derive a new generalization bound based on Semantic Coverage Measure (\eta) rather than sample size, showing why data scaling on homogeneous distributions may fail to correct reasoning flaws. We also show that Process Reward Models (PRMs) function as Topological Filters, enforcing step-wise mutual information constraints that render the low-complexity shortcut manifold inadmissible. These results provide a mathematical grounding for the role of process supervision beyond simple credit assignment.
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cs.CL
Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers) · 2026 · 正式发表