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The growing use of AI in mathematics raises a question: can we detect AI involvement in proofs, separately from AI assistance with writing? Historical arXiv papers, recent papers disclosing substantive AI use, and manuscripts released by OpenAI provide a rich empirical basis for studying this question. However, several challenges remain: lack of matched case-control pairs; potential incompleteness of disclosure; and lack of ready-to-use features designed to capture signals of AI involvement in proofs. To address these challenges, we construct five cohorts comprising 8,281 papers by combining existing manuscripts with those we produced using generative AI. These cohorts span different levels of AI involvement and include matched pairs of papers addressing the same research problems. We then introduce ProofTrace, a framework that represents each paper as a graph of immediate proof support (GIPS) and extracts interpretable features of mathematical organization. Our study yields three discoveries. First, principal-component projections of our features reveal a qualitative gradient of AI involvement, where AI-reworded papers remain close to human papers, the two AI-generated cohorts depart in broadly shared directions, and papers disclosing substantive AI use occupy intermediate positions which shifts toward AI-generated cohorts over time. Second, we identify recurring signatures of AI-generated proofs, such as fewer externally cited results, greater reliance on intermediate conclusions, and altered graph connectivity; many of these signatures persist under controls for research field, manuscript length, or graph size. Finally, in a separate detection experiment, ProofTrace distinguishes human-written papers from those disclosing substantive AI use. Its performance remains stable under AI rewording, whereas the performance of state-of-the-art text-based detectors declines sharply.

Predicting social network churn before it becomes visible in aggregate metrics remains an open challenge, particularly in enterprise settings where heterogeneous usage patterns, sparse data, and deployment constraints preclude standard supervised approaches. We formalize this problem as finite-step engagement projection over contributor-role Markov chains, with a stationary-distribution interpretation for ergodic chains in the long-run limit. For each engagement feature type within a network (e.g., Q&A, communities, articles, etc.), users are classified monthly into four behavioral states and a transition matrix is estimated from six months of history. Six-step propagation yields a label-free projection of the contributor mix; for ergodic chains, the Perron-Frobenius theorem establishes convergence under repeated propagation. Comparing projected future engagement to current engagement produces the Health Ratio, a single score requiring no trained model, no labels, and no infrastructure beyond SQL. Validated across seven rolling prediction windows on 11,500+ tenant-level networks, the Health Ratio achieves mean AUC 0.917 with a 156 times churn-rate gradient across risk tiers, outperforming all single-signal baselines and the growth-adjusted variant previously deployed in production. An ablation study shows that six-step propagation achieves similar churn discrimination to the eigenvector-based score. Deployed on Microsoft Engage since October 2025, the framework powers customer health monitoring and has enabled proactive intervention on at-risk networks before decline becomes visible in traditional metrics.