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版本更新 · v2arXiv:2604.14809

Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness

Shahar Cohen, David M. Steinberg, Yael Radzyner, Yochai Ben Horin

原文摘要

We study a classification problem with three key challenges: pervasive informative missingness, the integration of partial prior expert knowledge into the learning process, and the need for interpretable decision rules. We propose a framework that encodes prior knowledge through an expert-guided class-conditional model for one or more classes, and use this model to construct a small set of interpretable goodness-of-fit features. The features quantify how well the observed data agree with the expert model, isolating the contributions of different aspects of the data, including both observed and missing components. These features are combined with a few transparent auxiliary summaries in a simple discriminative classifier, resulting in a decision rule that is easy to inspect and justify. We develop and apply the framework in the context of seismic monitoring used to assess compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. We show that the method has strong potential as a transparent screening tool, reducing workload for expert analysts. A simulation designed to isolate the contribution of the proposed framework shows that this interpretable expert-guided method can even outperform strong standard machine-learning classifiers, particularly when training samples are small.

stat.ML · cs.LG · stat.AP

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗
新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.37086

Is Your LLM Relay Serving What It Claims? A low-cost and high-power test for LLM Relay Auditing

Fangran Miao, Shengjie Niu, Jian Huang, Ting Li

原文摘要

Relay and reseller APIs have become a common way to access large language models (LLMs), yet users cannot directly verify whether they receive the models they request and pay for. This opacity motivates LLM relay auditing, but existing methods struggle to combine low cost, robustness to benign deployment changes, and statistically interpretable decisions under black-box access. To address these limitations, we propose distributional fingerprint auditing (DFA), a statistical method that requires only textual responses from suspect and trusted reference endpoints. DFA repeatedly queries semantically simple finite-choice probes and uses the resulting categorical response distributions to construct endpoint fingerprints. It compares the suspect and reference fingerprints probe by probe and aggregates the resulting evidence using the Cauchy combination test, yielding an approximate endpoint-level $p$-value for audit decisions at a prespecified nominal significance level. Using registered fingerprints of candidate models, a likelihood-based formulation further supports model attribution under full substitution and joint estimation of substitute identity and substitution ratio under constant-ratio mixed routing. Our benchmark includes 16 proprietary and open-weight LLMs from 10 model families. Across 240 ordered full-substitution pairs, DFA achieves high detection rates at a nominal significance level of $α=0.05$, using five probes and 250 relay requests per audit with stored reference fingerprints. Configuration overrides can lead to rejection even when the served model remains unchanged, with effects varying across models and configurations. Simulations based on stored empirical fingerprints demonstrate accurate model attribution and estimate substitution ratios, with estimation error decreasing as the audit budget increases.

stat.AP · stat.ML

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗
新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.36631

The uneven rise of AI-generated web content

Adam Visokay, Soumyakanti Pan, Molly Griston, Polina Iasakova, Mark Nepf, Denis Peskoff, Riya Sinha, Jikai Sun 等 13 位作者

原文摘要

In less than five years, generative artificial intelligence (AI) has dramatically reshaped the public-facing web. Using a sample of more than 5 million crawlable webpages, we demonstrate that the share containing AI-generated text has increased precipitously, but unevenly. Our analyses reveal substantial differences in AI composition across language and domain categories (e.g., .edu, .com, or .gov). A higher fraction of English-language webpages contain AI-generated text compared to pages in other languages, and prevalence is substantially lower on .gov and .edu domains compared to .com. These distinctions persist even after accounting for compositional effects. We also find heterogeneity based on a page's position in the connectivity structure of the web. AI-generated text is most common and has increased most rapidly in pages that are the least central in the graph, which drives much of the overall growth in AI-generated text. A slower increase has taken place for more central pages, with the most central tier emerging as the least likely to contain AI-generated text. Methodologically, we use multiple AI detection tools, and generate estimates using a Bayesian hierarchical model that incorporates corrections for the detectors' statistical properties (both false positives and false negatives) and allows for different detector performance across groups, while propagating uncertainty in detector error rates into prevalence estimates. Our work suggests that AI is a prominent, but varied, contributor to public information and internet-based communication.

cs.AI · cs.CY · cs.NI · stat.AP

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗
新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.34904

Accuracy and efficiency of compact foundation models for surface-water mapping during floods

Parastoo Farajpoor, Mohammadreza Narimani

原文摘要

Pretrained Earth observation models may reduce the effort needed to map surface water, but their value depends on the alternative against which they are compared. We evaluated Prithvi-EO-2.0-Tiny using the 446 hand-labeled Sentinel-2 chips from 11 flood events in Sen1Floods11. A fine-tuned model, a frozen-encoder model, and an identical randomly initialized architecture were compared with a similarly sized U-Net, a larger Prithvi model, and spectral-index thresholds. Experiments varied the number of training chips, excluded events from model fitting, and measured computational cost and prediction reliability. With 252 training chips, U-Net achieved a water intersection-over-union (IoU) of 0.856 on the official test set, compared with 0.833 for fine-tuned Prithvi-Tiny. Pretraining improved the tiny transformer over random initialization by a reported 0.046 IoU with 25 training chips and 0.023 with 252 chips, but did not reverse the U-Net ranking. Across 11 event-exclusion evaluations, mean IoU was 0.768 for fine-tuned Prithvi-Tiny and 0.777 for U-Net; the paired interval included zero. Fine-tuned Prithvi-Tiny processed a 512x512-pixel chip in 16.1 ms on a GPU and 258 ms on a laptop CPU, compared with 30.6 and 665 ms for U-Net. Errors were concentrated near water boundaries, and high predictive entropy identified many, but not all, erroneous pixels. These results support a specific role for compact pretrained models: lower measured computational demand with competitive accuracy, rather than consistent superiority. Event-dependent performance, shared hyperparameter selection, and the distinction between observed water and newly inundated land delimit the conclusions.

eess.IV · cs.CV · cs.LG · stat.AP

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗
新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.34774

Performance Guarantees for Permissionless Lending

Nanqiao Wang, Jia Yuan Yu

原文摘要

We propose a lending protocol with far fewer risks than existing pool-based lending protocols (e.g., Aave, Compound). In our protocol, lenders and borrowers embody the spirit of decentralization by making competing interest-rate offers, resulting in the discovery of the prevailing interest rate through tâtonnement-like dynamics as opposed to taking rates partly determined by a central authority (e.g., Aave, Federal Reserve). We eliminate the risk of manipulation by creating loans with a fixed interest rate throughout the loan---like US Treasury bills. In particular, we further derive performance guarantees probabilities of repayment shortfall and liquidation by modeling the value of the collateral as a random walk, thus allowing participants to more efficiently manage their risk. To do so, we use characteristic functions and Fourier inversion to derive exact integral representations of the liquidation and repayment shortfall probabilities under the most general assumptions. We illustrate empirically this method by using Bitcoin as collateral and fitting its historical prices to Gaussian, Student-$t$, and symmetric stable Paretian distributions.

stat.AP · cs.CR · stat.ME

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗
新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.34711

Intervene, Calibrate, Discover: Learning Causal Structure from Pixels

Ziyi Ding, Xiaodi Huang, Xianxin Lai, Haijier Chen, Zhang Zhang, Xiao-Ping Zhang, Jiayu Chen

原文摘要

Learning high-level causal variables from low-level observations is a central problem for artificial intelligence. With known node semantics but an unknown graph, visual readout errors can misalign model settings with environment intervention values. We address this mismatch by pairing image readouts with verified values attained through fixed round-robin interventions. With encoder and decoder frozen, a dimension-wise invertible calibration map puts visual responses and target settings in shared numerical units. After freezing this map, the agent selects interventions to resolve graph directions and fits local mechanisms to predict consequences; inverse calibration returns counterfactual states to the decoder's original coordinates. Across Domino, Pick-and-Place, Balance, Gears, CAUSAL3D, and CausalWorld, we evaluate graph discovery, intervention consequences, and counterfactual images. Controlled domino experiments show that interventions resolve orientation ambiguity left by equal additional observations. In a matched-data domino control, calibration reduces the mean error of predicted changes in other variables within the same factual context, relative to an uncalibrated model.

cs.AI · stat.AP

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗
版本更新 · v4arXiv:2608.03228

SAKI-RoPE: Score-Aware Low-Rank Key Indexing with RoPE-Aware Covariance and Random-Matrix Noise Analysis

Lin Zhang

原文摘要

Existing low-rank KV-cache indexes preserve model weights or key variance, not the attention scores that determine retrieval. We derive the expected score distortion of key-side rank-r compression, a two-sided covariance-weighted low-rank problem that uses both query and key statistics, and solve it exactly: the optimum is an optimal rank-r linear score map, computed in closed form from two d x d covariances per head, and its predicted per-head score-MSE reduction matches measurement (Pearson r = 0.997). The resulting training-free index, SAKI, beats key-PCA at every rank on LLaMA-3.1-8B, Qwen2.5-7B, Mistral-7B and Llama-3.2-3B, at every context length from 4K to 64K, and in every calibration-domain pair (0.748 -> 0.799 recall@64 at r = 32 on LLaMA-3.1-8B). Because RoPE rotates keys by their distance from the query, we make the closed form RoPE-aware by averaging the query covariance over rotations; this SAKI-RoPE, our main method, raises recall to 0.861, beats PCA on every head of all four models, and needs only 28-39% of PCA's rank to match it at r = 32 across the four models. Random-matrix theory of the covariance estimation noise shows that 512 calibration tokens suffice and that clipping the Marchenko-Pastur noise bulk helps SAKI when calibration is short. We make no perplexity claim: with the attention sink pinned, perplexity differences between indexes are small and depend on model and text, and we show that any low-rank index calibrated on a long prefix drops the attention-sink token, which collapses 32K perplexity unless the sink is pinned.

cs.LG · stat.AP

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗
新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.34472

Reliability Assessment of FRP-RC Columns Using AK-MCS with a Piecewise Two-Branch Approach

Arndt Goldack, Richard Koehler, Ahmed Usama Syed

原文摘要

Slender concrete columns reinforced with fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP) bars fail at medium to high axial load levels either by concrete crushing or by loss of stability, while the tensile strains in the reinforcement remain far below the rupture strain. Each non-linear finite element (FE) analysis yields only the capacity of the governing failure mode, and the governing mode changes over a broad zone in which both capacities are nearly equal. Both characteristics conflict with active-learning Kriging-assisted Monte Carlo simulation (AK-MCS), which assumes a single, smooth limit-state function. This paper proposes a piecewise, two-branch AK-MCS framework in which each failure mode is represented by its own Kriging model, trained only on the FE analyses in which that mode governs, and the governing prediction is the minimum of both. Safeguards against data starvation keep rarely governing branches usable. After convergence, additional FE analyses are placed based on a leave-one-out calibration check and on the width of the confidence interval on the reliability index. A design-point search on the surrogate and importance sampling at the design points provide the reliability index even where direct Monte Carlo simulation finds no failure. For an FRP-reinforced concrete column example with mixed failure, 79% and 62% of the training points lie near the mode boundary. The reliability index from the design-point search agrees with the Monte Carlo estimate to within 0.05, and an FE analysis at the design point confirms the surrogate to within 0.6%.

cs.CE · stat.AP · stat.CO

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗
新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.34449

Is the arXiv Apocalypse upon us? A break in preprint growth coincident with agentic AI

Carlo R. Contaldi

原文摘要

As an experiment in agentic assisted analysis, we used an agentic AI model to analyse the effect of agentic AI on arXiv submissions; data acquisition, analysis and the first draft were carried out by the model under the author's direction. Monthly arXiv submissions have grown exponentially for three decades, at about $9\%$ per year. Fitting a piecewise log-linear trend with seasonal modulation to the full record, we find two post-pandemic breaks in growth rate. The first, in mid-2022, precedes ChatGPT and is carried by the expansion of AI research within computer science (CS); outside CS, growth from 2022 to 2025 remained at $8\%$ per year. The second, between December 2025 and February 2026, follows the release of models capable of extended autonomous work and is absent from the AI categories themselves. Since December 2025 submissions without a CS listing have run $17\%$ above trend, and in September 2026 total submissions reached a record $40\,363$. The excess is largest in mathematics, where submissions doubled within a year, and follows a gradient from formal and theoretical fields to experimental ones that is not ordered by surveyed rates of AI-tool adoption. In mathematics the increase is distributed across subfields and authors, two-thirds of it arising from a larger number of distinct authors rather than from a few prolific submitters. Across fields the clearest signature is a shift to single authorship: solo-authored papers rose by $70\%$ within a year in mathematics and condensed matter, and by $44\%$ in quantitative biology even as its total output fell, but not in experimental particle physics. The analysis is deliberately agnostic of LLM-detection methods: it uses only submission counts and metadata, with treatment timing fixed by calendar dates, and is therefore free of the outcome-triggered timing bias of author-level studies.

cs.DL · stat.AP

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗
版本更新 · v2arXiv:2601.06327Google Research

From Lagging to Leading: Validating Hard Braking Events as High-Density Indicators of Segment Crash Risk

Yechen Li, Shantanu Shahane, Shoshana Vasserman, Carolina Osorio, Yi-fan Chen, Ivan Kuznetsov, Kristin White, Justyna Swiatkowska 等 10 位作者

原文摘要

Identifying high crash risk road segments and accurately predicting crash incidence is fundamental to implementing effective safety countermeasures. While collision data inherently reflects risk, the infrequency and inconsistent reporting of crashes present a major challenge to robust risk prediction models. The proliferation of connected vehicle technology offers a promising avenue to leverage high-density safety metrics for enhanced crash forecasting. A Hard-Braking Event (HBE), interpreted as an evasive maneuver, functions as a potent proxy for elevated driving risk due to its demonstrable correlation with underlying crash causal factors. Crucially, HBE data is significantly more readily available across the entire road network than conventional collision records. This study systematically evaluated the correlation at individual road segment level between police-reported collisions and aggregated and anonymized HBEs identified via the Google Android Auto platform, utilizing datasets from California and Virginia. Empirical evidence revealed that HBEs occur at a rate magnitudes higher than traffic crashes. Employing the state-of-the-practice Negative-Binomial regression models, the analysis established a statistically significant positive correlation between the HBE rate and the crash rate: road segments exhibiting a higher frequency of HBEs were consistently associated with a greater incidence of crashes. This sophisticated model incorporated and controlled for various confounding factors, including road type, speed profile, proximity to ramps, and road segment slope. The HBEs derived from connected vehicle technology thus provide a scalable, high-density safety surrogate metric for network-wide traffic safety assessment, with the potential to optimize safer routing recommendations and inform the strategic deployment of active safety countermeasures.

cs.OH · stat.AP

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗