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新论文 · v1arXiv:2611.15023

SkinAdvisor: An AI-Driven Decision Framework for Skin Production Planning via Multi-Modal Transformer Sales Forecasting

Ge Fan, Kai Wang, Chaoyun Zhang, Yingjie Li, Yuze Liu, Junyang Chen

原文摘要

Skins, cosmetic in-game items, are a primary revenue stream for modern online games, yet production decisions (which skins to make, when to release, how to price) remain driven by intuition and retrospective analytics. We present SkinAdvisor, an AI-driven decision framework for skin production planning, powered by SkinCast, a deployed multi-modal Transformer forecasting 180-day per-day sales trajectories for unreleased skins. SkinCast couples four encoders: a pretrained Informer for player-preference time series, a pretrained Player-Hero-Skin graph embedder for relational priors, and two lightweight Transformers for skin attributes and release context, fused through a shared backbone with a local-plus-global day-x positional encoding and decoded by an N-layer Informer in a single non-autoregressive pass. SkinAdvisor plugs these forecasts into a serving pipeline (Select -> Fill -> Infer -> Sales -> ROI -> Ranking) that ranks candidate skins by forecast-based ROI and supports multi-candidate comparison. The system has been in production for a full release cycle. Offline experiments show SkinCast reduces RMSE by ~20% over the strongest baseline (Informer) and ~60% over classical methods; stress tests on a 16-core CPU server confirm p99 latency under 8ms and peak throughput above 1100 rps. We report two deployment lessons: order-of-magnitude accuracy suffices for production decisions, and pretrained embeddings can leak temporal information, requiring season-based splitting to prevent.

cs.LG · cs.AI

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗
新论文 · v1arXiv:2611.05997

From Waste to Discovery: Recycling High-Scored Unexposed Candidates in Taobao Feed Recommendation

Ge Fan, Kai Meng, Huiping Chu, Yuning Jiang, Han Zhu, Bo Zheng

原文摘要

Helping users discover new interests is vital to the long-term health of industrial recommender systems, yet the usual remedy, boosting exposure of under-explored (discovery) content, often backfires in production. We report URED (Unexposed Recycling for Efficient Discovery), a training-free recall-stage system serving Taobao feed recommendation at Alibaba for over six months to tens of millions of daily active users. It rests on a production-validated insight: naive boosting fails because it injects cold, information-poor candidates that rankers systematically over-estimate, buying no discovery gain while risking engagement. Items scored highly but never exposed (signals industrial pipelines routinely discard) form a pool that is both relevant and reliably predictable. Over a 30-day horizon URED aggregates them and re-injects at recall time through a lightweight pipeline spanning offline storage, distributed aggregation, and low-latency online serving, adding under 1% latency via a single O(1) lookup per request with no model retraining. Online A/B tests show +3.47% discovered categories and +8.47% content richness with engagement preserved: completion video views rise significantly (+2.62%) and total views move positive (+0.36%, not significant). Ablations confirm both design pillars are necessary: a one-day window collapses the discovery gain to +0.55% (not significant), and random injection without score filtering yields no gain while trending negative on engagement (-0.17%). Across production recall channels, URED reaches 13.9x the platform-average discovery rate (6.3x the strongest nearline baseline) at engagement quality on par with the platform average. We share deployment details and lessons for practitioners facing the exploration-exploitation dilemma under tight resource constraints.

cs.AI · cs.IR

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新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.39426

UGR: Unified Generative Ranking for Heterogeneous E-commerce Recommendation

Zonghe Shao, Huabin Chen, Sitong Lu, Fangmei Zhu, Yingcai Ma, Ge Fan, Jinguo Gao, Wei Shi 等 10 位作者

原文摘要

List-wise ranking in e-commerce recommendation must balance user utility and commercial value across organic content, ads, and candidates from other businesses, while modeling candidate interactions and sequential dependencies. Existing generative ranking methods typically learn from logged exposure sequences and operate on truncated candidate sets from a single business. Exposure-sequence learning may not fully exploit post-exposure feedback signals. Meanwhile, generative ranking over heterogeneous, multi-business candidates remains less explored, particularly when recommendation scores and advertising value must be jointly modeled under generalized second-price (GSP) auctions. We propose Unified Generative Ranking (UGR), which performs generative ranking over the full request-level multi-business heterogeneous candidate set, typically comprising around a thousand candidates in production, and directly generates multi-business ranking lists through candidate-aware autoregressive decoding. To go beyond exposure-sequence imitation, UGR introduces complementary feedback supervision through weighted supervised fine-tuning and permutation preference optimization, which respectively leverage observed post-exposure feedback and feedback-derived preferences among permutations. UGR uses a training-time advertising debiasing tower to model historical ad exposure effects and incorporates current ad value during serving while preserving the existing allocation and GSP pricing rules. Multi-value sequence retrieval produces candidate ranking lists, and the existing downstream evaluator selects the final list for exposure. Offline experiments demonstrate consistent gains in ranking quality, while online A/B tests on Taobao's Guess You Like recommendation service yield improvements of 1.76% in Core IPV, 3.29% in Transaction Volume, and 2.10% in GMV over the production baseline.

cs.IR

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗