← 研踪 PaperTrailarXiv:2410.03897 · v5
Generative AI, Managerial Expectations, and Economic Activity
首次提交 2024-10-05 03:57
版本更新 2026-11-10 00:49
雷达观测 2026-11-10 15:22
摘要
Using generative AI, we extract managers' economic expectations from over 120,000 corporate conference call transcripts. The resulting AI Economy Score predicts GDP growth, production, employment, and wages five or more quarters ahead, beyond survey forecasts and other existing measures. Industry- and firm-level scores capture sector- and firm-specific activity, and a composite of firm, industry, and macroeconomic expectations further improves forecasting power and horizon. Predictability concentrates among historically more accurate, less biased managers, consistent with an information rather than a noise channel. Managerial expectations thus offer incremental insights into economic activity, with implications for macro- and microeconomic decision-making.
作者备注：27 Pages, 5 Figures, 17 Tables
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v5 · 2026-11-10 00:49 · 最新观测版本
Generative AI, Managerial Expectations, and Economic Activity
Using generative AI, we extract managers' economic expectations from over 120,000 corporate conference call transcripts. The resulting AI Economy Score predicts GDP growth, production, employment, and wages five or more quarters ahead, beyond survey forecasts and other existing measures. Industry- and firm-level scores capture sector- and firm-specific activity, and a composite of firm, industry, and macroeconomic expectations further improves forecasting power and horizon. Predictability concentrates among historically more accurate, less biased managers, consistent with an information rather than a noise channel. Managerial expectations thus offer incremental insights into economic activity, with implications for macro- and microeconomic decision-making.
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