← 研踪 PaperTrailarXiv:2512.14221 · v2
Mask-Conditional Conformal Prediction: Valid Uncertainty For All Missing Data Mechanisms
首次提交 2025-12-16 17:15
版本更新 2026-11-01 17:10
雷达观测 2026-11-04 23:43
摘要
Conformal prediction (CP) offers a principled framework for uncertainty quantification, but it fails to guarantee mask-conditional coverage when faced with missing covariates. In addressing the heterogeneity induced by various missing patterns, Mask-Conditional Valid (MCV) Coverage has emerged as a more desirable property than Marginal Coverage. In this work, we adapt split CP to handle missing values by proposing a preimpute-mask-then-correct framework that can offer valid coverage. We show that our method provides guaranteed Marginal Coverage and Mask-Conditional Validity for general missing data mechanisms. A key component of our approach is a reweighted conformal prediction procedure that corrects the prediction sets after distributional imputation (multiple imputation) of the calibration dataset, making our method compatible with standard imputation pipelines. We derive two algorithms and prove that they achieve both marginal validity and MCV. We evaluate them on synthetic and real-world datasets. It reduces significantly the width of prediction intervals w.r.t standard MCV methods, while maintaining the target guarantees.
期刊信息：Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS), PMLR 300:3034-3042, 2026
观测到的版本
相邻记录可能跳过中间版本；首次发现 v2 及以上也会标为版本更新。
v2 · 2026-11-01 17:10 · 最新观测版本
Mask-Conditional Conformal Prediction: Valid Uncertainty For All Missing Data Mechanisms
Conformal prediction (CP) offers a principled framework for uncertainty quantification, but it fails to guarantee mask-conditional coverage when faced with missing covariates. In addressing the heterogeneity induced by various missing patterns, Mask-Conditional Valid (MCV) Coverage has emerged as a more desirable property than Marginal Coverage. In this work, we adapt split CP to handle missing values by proposing a preimpute-mask-then-correct framework that can offer valid coverage. We show that our method provides guaranteed Marginal Coverage and Mask-Conditional Validity for general missing data mechanisms. A key component of our approach is a reweighted conformal prediction procedure that corrects the prediction sets after distributional imputation (multiple imputation) of the calibration dataset, making our method compatible with standard imputation pipelines. We derive two algorithms and prove that they achieve both marginal validity and MCV. We evaluate them on synthetic and real-world datasets. It reduces significantly the width of prediction intervals w.r.t standard MCV methods, while maintaining the target guarantees.
查看此版本解读 →查看此版本原文 ↗