arXiv:2602.03215 · v2

Learning pharmacokinetic dynamics with structured neural ODEs for precision dosing

首次提交 2026-02-03 15:30

版本更新 2026-11-12 18:43

雷达观测 2026-11-13 14:15

摘要

Individualized dosing requires predicting how a patient's drug exposure would change under a different dose or schedule. However, a model that accurately predicts exposure at the current dose may not reliably predict what happens when treatment changes. We developed two neural models that learn pharmacokinetic dynamics from data without predefined pharmacokinetic equations. The first predicts exposure after a dose change, while the second also allows changes in dosing schedules. In simulations, the second model predicted exposure under new dosing schedules more accurately than competing neural models. On real data of kidney transplant recipients treated with tacrolimus, both models showed lower prediction errors than Bayesian estimation when predicting exposure at a later visit. These findings suggest that incorporating pharmacokinetic principles into neural models can improve predictions needed for individualized dosing.