← 研踪 PaperTrailarXiv:2610.36703 · v1
RankFormer: Rethinking Time Series Transformers through Representation Capacity Analysis and Progressive Decoding
首次提交 2026-10-27 14:20
版本更新 2026-10-27 14:20
雷达观测 2026-10-29 00:35
摘要
Multivariate time series forecasting plays a critical role in Web and cyber-physical systems, where large-scale services and IoT infrastructures generate complex temporal data. Transformer-based models have achieved strong empirical performance in this domain, yet the principles governing the expressive capacity of their learned representations remain insufficiently understood. Moreover, many existing models rely on simplified decoding strategies, including channel-independent modeling and direct projection heads, which limit their ability to capture complex multivariate dynamics. To address these challenges, we propose RankFormer, a novel encoder-decoder architecture for multivariate time series forecasting. We establish a rank-based analysis framework to investigate how tokenization, embedding, and attention designs affect the representation capacity of time series Transformers. Our analysis reveals that patchification increases the potential representation capacity by aggregating multiple temporal observations into each token, while subsequent encoding operations determine how much of this capacity is realized. Guided by these insights, we develop a rank-enhancing encoder with Hourglass Attention to improve rank stability during information interaction. Furthermore, we introduce the Interactive Progressive Decoder (IPD), which improves future trajectory modeling through global-guided cross-channel interaction and progressive refinement. Extensive experiments on real-world long-term forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that RankFormer achieves competitive performance against state-of-the-art methods. Code repository: https://github.com/TangPeiwang/Rankformer.
作者备注：12 pages
观测到的版本
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v1 · 2026-10-27 14:20 · 最新观测版本
RankFormer: Rethinking Time Series Transformers through Representation Capacity Analysis and Progressive Decoding
Multivariate time series forecasting plays a critical role in Web and cyber-physical systems, where large-scale services and IoT infrastructures generate complex temporal data. Transformer-based models have achieved strong empirical performance in this domain, yet the principles governing the expressive capacity of their learned representations remain insufficiently understood. Moreover, many existing models rely on simplified decoding strategies, including channel-independent modeling and direct projection heads, which limit their ability to capture complex multivariate dynamics. To address these challenges, we propose RankFormer, a novel encoder-decoder architecture for multivariate time series forecasting. We establish a rank-based analysis framework to investigate how tokenization, embedding, and attention designs affect the representation capacity of time series Transformers. Our analysis reveals that patchification increases the potential representation capacity by aggregating multiple temporal observations into each token, while subsequent encoding operations determine how much of this capacity is realized. Guided by these insights, we develop a rank-enhancing encoder with Hourglass Attention to improve rank stability during information interaction. Furthermore, we introduce the Interactive Progressive Decoder (IPD), which improves future trajectory modeling through global-guided cross-channel interaction and progressive refinement. Extensive experiments on real-world long-term forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that RankFormer achieves competitive performance against state-of-the-art methods. Code repository: https://github.com/TangPeiwang/Rankformer.
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