← 研踪 PaperTrailarXiv:2611.11516 · v1
Breaking survivorship bias in driving world models
首次提交 2026-11-09 01:45
版本更新 2026-11-09 01:45
雷达观测 2026-11-10 13:19
摘要
World models allow autonomous vehicles to imagine the consequences of candidate actions before execution, but their reliability depends on the futures represented in their training data. We identify a survivorship bias in driving world models: because the futures recorded in prevailing driving datasets almost always end safely, existing models often imagine benign outcomes even when a collision is imminent. We introduce a neutral world model (NWM) that learns both routine and safety-critical futures from a mixture of routine driving and real accident videos with a bounding-box-guided objective. The NWM more faithfully anticipates imminent collisions, while maintaining a low false collision rate and competitive generation quality in routine driving. We further use the model as an imagination engine for decision-making. Given multiple ego trajectories, the NWM predicts the future associated with each candidate, and a reward function evaluates these imagined outcomes before selecting an action. On challenging NAVSIM scenarios, this procedure selects the better trajectory more reliably than the baseline world model. Zero-shot experiments with real-world pedestrian dummy crossing data collected using an autonomous research vehicle further demonstrate transfer to unseen sensor observations. These results show that correcting survivorship bias enables world models to more faithfully reason about futures and support safety-critical decision-making in autonomous driving.
作者备注：Project Website: https://zihaosheng.github.io/NWM/
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v1 · 2026-11-09 01:45 · 最新观测版本
Breaking survivorship bias in driving world models
World models allow autonomous vehicles to imagine the consequences of candidate actions before execution, but their reliability depends on the futures represented in their training data. We identify a survivorship bias in driving world models: because the futures recorded in prevailing driving datasets almost always end safely, existing models often imagine benign outcomes even when a collision is imminent. We introduce a neutral world model (NWM) that learns both routine and safety-critical futures from a mixture of routine driving and real accident videos with a bounding-box-guided objective. The NWM more faithfully anticipates imminent collisions, while maintaining a low false collision rate and competitive generation quality in routine driving. We further use the model as an imagination engine for decision-making. Given multiple ego trajectories, the NWM predicts the future associated with each candidate, and a reward function evaluates these imagined outcomes before selecting an action. On challenging NAVSIM scenarios, this procedure selects the better trajectory more reliably than the baseline world model. Zero-shot experiments with real-world pedestrian dummy crossing data collected using an autonomous research vehicle further demonstrate transfer to unseen sensor observations. These results show that correcting survivorship bias enables world models to more faithfully reason about futures and support safety-critical decision-making in autonomous driving.
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