← 研踪 PaperTrailarXiv:2611.12332 · v1
Do Machine Learning Models Predict?
首次提交 2026-11-09 20:51
版本更新 2026-11-09 20:51
雷达观测 2026-11-10 15:22
摘要
Machine learning (ML) models are said to predict. Philosophers draw a line between accommodation and prediction, depending on whether or not the evidence a theory succeeds on was used in constructing it. Does this distinction survive when a theory is replaced by an ML model? We argue so, yet the dividing line becomes fuzzy. Whether an output of an ML model counts as an accommodation or as a prediction hinges upon the relationship between the patterns the input instantiate and those on which the model was selected through its training. Once this relation is taken into account, most successful outputs of ML models, we suggest, bear a strong accommodation character. We further trace the consequences of our account for confirmation, novelty, and scientific realism.
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Do Machine Learning Models Predict?
Machine learning (ML) models are said to predict. Philosophers draw a line between accommodation and prediction, depending on whether or not the evidence a theory succeeds on was used in constructing it. Does this distinction survive when a theory is replaced by an ML model? We argue so, yet the dividing line becomes fuzzy. Whether an output of an ML model counts as an accommodation or as a prediction hinges upon the relationship between the patterns the input instantiate and those on which the model was selected through its training. Once this relation is taken into account, most successful outputs of ML models, we suggest, bear a strong accommodation character. We further trace the consequences of our account for confirmation, novelty, and scientific realism.
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