← 研踪 PaperTrailarXiv:2611.12437 · v1
Occupancy Modelling of Biased Landslide Inventories: When Does Separating Occurrence from Recording Improve on Neutralisation?
首次提交 2026-11-09 21:59
版本更新 2026-11-09 21:59
雷达观测 2026-11-10 15:22
摘要
Landslide susceptibility models are trained on inventories that record where landslides were seen, not where they occurred. The established remedy fits bias-describing variables and neutralises them when mapping. We adapt occupancy-detection modelling from ecology, treating several inventories as imperfect observers of one event and separating occurrence from recording, and ask when this improves on neutralisation. We use near-complete inventories of the 2018 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi, 2015 Gorkha and 2010 Haiti earthquakes with simulated reporting bias, and three real Gorkha inventories. Compared with standard practice, the occupancy model reduces road bias in 24 of 25 paired draws and raises AUC by 0.08-0.14 on Gorkha and 0.03 on Haiti, but only 0.01-0.02 on Iburi. Its median predicted-to-true landslide rate is 0.99 (range 0.44-1.89), against 0.24-0.30 for the baselines. Rescaling the baselines with the same anchor area corrects their median but leaves larger errors (range 0.20-4.34). Cell-level probabilities remain too extreme (calibration slope 0.59). Compared with the best neutralised model, AUC is higher on Iburi (by 0.03-0.07) and lower on Gorkha and Haiti (by 0.01-0.05). Transplant experiments tie the Iburi advantage to the structure of its true landslide pattern, not to its terrain or road network. In all eight settings with a low interaction gap, computable from biased records, neutralisation was at least as accurate, including a prespecified test on Haiti; a high gap did not guarantee an advantage. The real Gorkha inventories are slope-biased, not road-biased, and there the model brings no meaningful gain. Report-based catalogues remain the main untested case.
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v1 · 2026-11-09 21:59 · 最新观测版本
Occupancy Modelling of Biased Landslide Inventories: When Does Separating Occurrence from Recording Improve on Neutralisation?
Landslide susceptibility models are trained on inventories that record where landslides were seen, not where they occurred. The established remedy fits bias-describing variables and neutralises them when mapping. We adapt occupancy-detection modelling from ecology, treating several inventories as imperfect observers of one event and separating occurrence from recording, and ask when this improves on neutralisation. We use near-complete inventories of the 2018 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi, 2015 Gorkha and 2010 Haiti earthquakes with simulated reporting bias, and three real Gorkha inventories. Compared with standard practice, the occupancy model reduces road bias in 24 of 25 paired draws and raises AUC by 0.08-0.14 on Gorkha and 0.03 on Haiti, but only 0.01-0.02 on Iburi. Its median predicted-to-true landslide rate is 0.99 (range 0.44-1.89), against 0.24-0.30 for the baselines. Rescaling the baselines with the same anchor area corrects their median but leaves larger errors (range 0.20-4.34). Cell-level probabilities remain too extreme (calibration slope 0.59). Compared with the best neutralised model, AUC is higher on Iburi (by 0.03-0.07) and lower on Gorkha and Haiti (by 0.01-0.05). Transplant experiments tie the Iburi advantage to the structure of its true landslide pattern, not to its terrain or road network. In all eight settings with a low interaction gap, computable from biased records, neutralisation was at least as accurate, including a prespecified test on Haiti; a high gap did not guarantee an advantage. The real Gorkha inventories are slope-biased, not road-biased, and there the model brings no meaningful gain. Report-based catalogues remain the main untested case.
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