← 研踪 PaperTrailarXiv:2611.13359 · v1
Reconstructing Boundary Layer Wind Profiles with Machine Learning: A Comparative Study on IGRA Radiosonde Data
首次提交 2026-11-10 07:34
版本更新 2026-11-10 07:34
雷达观测 2026-11-11 11:04
摘要
Wind profiles in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) drive short-range forecasting and wind-energy siting, yet sparse radiosonde coverage forces practitioners to interpolate them from a handful of physical predictors. We benchmark modern tabular learners against analytical parameterizations on 158,097 IGRA soundings. CatBoost, TabM, and FT-Transformer reduce RMSE to 1.3-1.6 m/s, against approximately 3 m/s for power-law and Monin-Obukhov fits; once the predictor set is fixed the three architectures differ by less than 0.05 m/s, so accuracy is driven by predictors rather than architecture. A cohort analysis of within-bin profile dispersion places an empirical floor of approximately 1.77 m/s on any point-wise predictor that uses standard radiosonde features, consistent with prior eddy-viscosity inversions. A one-dimensional Fourier Neural Operator applied as a post-hoc corrector to frozen tabular predictions reduces near-surface RMSE on U.S. stations from 1.5 to 1.2 m/s, while leaving upper-layer error unchanged. Further gains should come from new predictors rather than larger models.
作者备注：10 pages, 8 figures. Accepted at the 2nd Workshop on AI-Ready Data for Science Discovery (ADSD), IEEE ICDM 2026
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v1 · 2026-11-10 07:34 · 最新观测版本
Reconstructing Boundary Layer Wind Profiles with Machine Learning: A Comparative Study on IGRA Radiosonde Data
Wind profiles in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) drive short-range forecasting and wind-energy siting, yet sparse radiosonde coverage forces practitioners to interpolate them from a handful of physical predictors. We benchmark modern tabular learners against analytical parameterizations on 158,097 IGRA soundings. CatBoost, TabM, and FT-Transformer reduce RMSE to 1.3-1.6 m/s, against approximately 3 m/s for power-law and Monin-Obukhov fits; once the predictor set is fixed the three architectures differ by less than 0.05 m/s, so accuracy is driven by predictors rather than architecture. A cohort analysis of within-bin profile dispersion places an empirical floor of approximately 1.77 m/s on any point-wise predictor that uses standard radiosonde features, consistent with prior eddy-viscosity inversions. A one-dimensional Fourier Neural Operator applied as a post-hoc corrector to frozen tabular predictions reduces near-surface RMSE on U.S. stations from 1.5 to 1.2 m/s, while leaving upper-layer error unchanged. Further gains should come from new predictors rather than larger models.
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