← 研踪 PaperTrailarXiv:2611.13794 · v1
AnchorMTS: Multi-View Signal Representation and Forecast-Anchored Fusion for Long-Term Time-Series Forecasting
首次提交 2026-11-10 17:27
版本更新 2026-11-10 17:27
雷达观测 2026-11-11 11:04
摘要
Long-term time-series forecasters typically optimize a single numerical representation, even though the same history exposes complementary geometry, recurrence, and semantic structure. We propose AnchorMTS, which derives self-aligned visual and textual views from each observed window and uses them only to refine a complete numerical forecast. A trainable evidence path produces a candidate forecast, while a parameter-free output projection enforces an exact per-variable bound on its displacement from the numerical anchor. Across six benchmarks and four horizons, AnchorMTS achieves the best macro MSE/MAE (0.336/0.367) among seven supervised baselines and wins 18 of 24 MSE settings against the cellwise baseline envelope; removing the auxiliary path raises macro MSE to 0.340. The projection leaves 95.8% of candidate refinements unchanged while yielding zero bound violations, showing that complementary multi-view evidence can improve forecasting while its final influence remains explicitly controlled.
观测到的版本
相邻记录可能跳过中间版本；首次发现 v2 及以上也会标为版本更新。
v1 · 2026-11-10 17:27 · 最新观测版本
AnchorMTS: Multi-View Signal Representation and Forecast-Anchored Fusion for Long-Term Time-Series Forecasting
Long-term time-series forecasters typically optimize a single numerical representation, even though the same history exposes complementary geometry, recurrence, and semantic structure. We propose AnchorMTS, which derives self-aligned visual and textual views from each observed window and uses them only to refine a complete numerical forecast. A trainable evidence path produces a candidate forecast, while a parameter-free output projection enforces an exact per-variable bound on its displacement from the numerical anchor. Across six benchmarks and four horizons, AnchorMTS achieves the best macro MSE/MAE (0.336/0.367) among seven supervised baselines and wins 18 of 24 MSE settings against the cellwise baseline envelope; removing the auxiliary path raises macro MSE to 0.340. The projection leaves 95.8% of candidate refinements unchanged while yielding zero bound violations, showing that complementary multi-view evidence can improve forecasting while its final influence remains explicitly controlled.
查看此版本解读 →查看此版本原文 ↗