← 研踪 PaperTrailarXiv:2611.15705 · v1
Characterizing Predictive Multiplicity in Ranking and Its Fairness Implications
首次提交 2026-11-12 00:45
版本更新 2026-11-12 00:45
雷达观测 2026-11-13 14:16
摘要
Prediction problems often admit competing models that achieve comparable performance yet produce conflicting outputs, a phenomenon known as predictive multiplicity. While this challenge has been extensively studied in classification tasks, its implications remain largely unexplored in ranking frameworks, which are critical for high-stakes societal decisions such as the allocation of welfare resources and social assistance. This paper investigates the phenomenon of predictive multiplicity in score-based ranking problems. We introduce formal definitions to capture multiplicity in ranking settings, supported by foundational theoretical guarantees. Furthermore, we examine the dual relationship between predictive multiplicity and algorithmic fairness in ranking problems: we analyze how model multiplicity can act as a potential source of unfairness, while demonstrating how exploring this decision space provides a principled avenue for discovering less discriminatory rankings. Finally, we complement our theoretical contributions with insightful empirical evaluations on both synthetic and real-world datasets, validating our analytical findings and illustrating their practical implications. Taken together, this work highlights the real-world relevance of predictive multiplicity in ranking and sheds light on the potential of leveraging this effect to achieve fairer outcomes.
作者备注：32 pages, 6 figures
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v1 · 2026-11-12 00:45 · 最新观测版本
Characterizing Predictive Multiplicity in Ranking and Its Fairness Implications
Prediction problems often admit competing models that achieve comparable performance yet produce conflicting outputs, a phenomenon known as predictive multiplicity. While this challenge has been extensively studied in classification tasks, its implications remain largely unexplored in ranking frameworks, which are critical for high-stakes societal decisions such as the allocation of welfare resources and social assistance. This paper investigates the phenomenon of predictive multiplicity in score-based ranking problems. We introduce formal definitions to capture multiplicity in ranking settings, supported by foundational theoretical guarantees. Furthermore, we examine the dual relationship between predictive multiplicity and algorithmic fairness in ranking problems: we analyze how model multiplicity can act as a potential source of unfairness, while demonstrating how exploring this decision space provides a principled avenue for discovering less discriminatory rankings. Finally, we complement our theoretical contributions with insightful empirical evaluations on both synthetic and real-world datasets, validating our analytical findings and illustrating their practical implications. Taken together, this work highlights the real-world relevance of predictive multiplicity in ranking and sheds light on the potential of leveraging this effect to achieve fairer outcomes.
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