Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning has become a widely used mechanism for eliciting multi-step reasoning in large language models by generating intermediate reasoning steps at inference time. Yet the scaling behavior of generalization with CoT depth remains poorly understood. To address this question, we study a theoretically solvable model of CoT for in-context weight prediction in linear regression, where test-time reasoning is represented as an iterative refinement of the weight-parameter estimate. Using tools from random matrix theory under high-dimensional asymptotics, we derive an exact formula for the generalization error as a function of reasoning depth, pretraining data amount, and context length. Our analysis reveals a sharp phase transition separating exponential and polynomial improvement, saturation, and overthinking, and characterizes how the optimal reasoning depth scales. We further show that deeper reasoning is most effective with sufficiently rich pretraining and in-context information, whereas limited pretraining or context makes longer reasoning prone to error amplification or saturation. We also validate these predictions through experiments on fully learned linear attention and softmax attention models. Our results provide a unified theoretical account of how test-time CoT depth affects generalization.
We develop an analytical framework for understanding how the generated distribution evolves during diffusion model training. Leveraging a Gaussian-equivalence principle, we solve the full-batch gradient-flow dynamics of linear and convolutional denoisers and integrate the resulting probability-flow ODE, yielding analytic expressions for the generated distribution. The theory exposes a universal inverse-variance spectral law: the time for an eigen- or Fourier mode to match its target variance scales as $τ\proptoλ^{-1}$, so high-variance (coarse) structure is mastered orders of magnitude sooner than low-variance (fine) detail. Extending the analysis to deep linear networks and circulant full-width convolutions shows that weight sharing merely multiplies learning rates -- accelerating but not eliminating the bias -- whereas local convolution introduces a qualitatively different bias. Experiments on Gaussian and natural-image datasets confirm the spectral law persists in deep MLP-based UNet. Convolutional U-Nets, however, display rapid near-simultaneous emergence of many modes, implicating local convolution in reshaping learning dynamics. These results underscore how data covariance governs the order and speed with which diffusion models learn, and they call for deeper investigation of the unique inductive biases introduced by local convolution.