Iliya Zhechev, Radoslav Ralev, Chris Coleman, Srijith Rajamohan, Jen Agarwal, Tyler Hutcherson, Simba Khadder
We study whether geometric relationships between conversation turns, memory texts, and queries can predict answer correctness before generation. We evaluate four memory implementations with dense or hybrid retrieval and one observation-summary comparator. We embed these texts in a shared space. A logistic classifier uses 25 features describing query proximity, memory-conversation correspondence, and conversation structure. On LongMemEval-small, pooled AUROC is 0.640 over 2,367 question-system pairs, below a question-difficulty baseline of 0.655. Performance varies by question type: geometry reaches 0.841 on single-session-assistant questions, but system identity alone reaches 0.826. After controlling for difficulty and identity, geometry adds no statistically established pooled improvement (delta = +0.002, 95% CI [-0.010, 0.014]). A fixed-store context-selection experiment finds higher accuracy with proximity-ranked memories than with random subsets, consistent with ordinary retrieval relevance. On LoCoMo, nearest-turn similarity has modest predictive value for single-hop questions and near-chance estimates for several other categories. Training uses correctness labels; prediction uses pre-answer features and no additional LLM generation call. The results characterize associations between memory representations and correctness, rather than establish a reliable deployment diagnostic. In particular, embedding proximity does not verify fact coverage or distinguish memory-construction, retrieval, and generation errors.
Eser Aygün, Anastasiya Belyaeva, Gheorghe Comanici, Marc Coram, Hao Cui, Jake Garrison, Renee Johnston Anton Kast, Cory Y. McLean 等 42 位作者
The cycle of scientific discovery is frequently bottlenecked by the slow, manual creation of software to support computational experiments\cite{hannay2009how}. To address this, we present Empirical Research Assistance (ERA), an AI system that creates expert-level scientific software whose goal is to maximize a quality metric. The system uses a Large Language Model (LLM) and Tree Search (TS)\cite{silver2016mastering} to systematically improve the quality metric and intelligently navigate the large space of possible solutions. ERA achieves expert-level results when it explores and integrates complex research ideas from external sources. The effectiveness of tree search is demonstrated across a diverse range of tasks. In bioinformatics, ERA discovered 40 novel methods for single-cell data analysis that outperformed the top human-developed methods on a public leaderboard. In epidemiology, ERA generated 14 models that outperformed the CDC ensemble and all other individual models for forecasting COVID-19 hospitalizations. ERA also produced expert-level software for geospatial analysis, neural activity prediction in zebrafish, and numerical solution of integrals, and a novel rule-based construction for time series forecasting. By devising and implementing novel solutions to diverse tasks, ERA represents a significant step towards accelerating scientific progress.