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新论文 · v1arXiv:2611.06743

Using AI Predictions to Augment Rather Than Replace Surveys

Lai Wei, Yifei Zhu

原文摘要

LLMs can predict human survey responses with nontrivial accuracy. What this means for the future of social surveys remains hotly contested. Optimists anticipate a coming era of synthetic respondents; skeptics see a fragile and overhyped substitute. This article advocates a position: AI predictions cannot replace surveys, but they can augment them. Using prediction-powered inference (PPI), a statistical framework rooted in survey methodology and known in sociology as "mixed subjects design", the study tests whether AI predictions can improve the statistical efficiency of social surveys when combined with census-scale auxiliary information. Applying the framework to 83 social outcomes in the General Social Survey (GSS) and National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), with American Community Survey (ACS) being the auxiliary file, we find that supervised predictors yield effective-sample-size gains of about 7-12 percent when estimating the mean, while LLM gains are smaller but positive.

cs.CY

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗
新论文 · v1arXiv:2611.01659

HuG: Learning Humanoid Whole-Body Affordance-Aware Grasping with Active Perception

Xuanbin Peng, Lai Wei, Yuze Zhai, Qingyuan Yu, Keyi Wang, Jianglong Ye, Xiaolong Wang

原文摘要

Acquiring objects in human environments is hard for humanoids: targets are partially occluded under egocentric viewpoints, and reaching them demands coordinated whole-body motion that keeps the target visible and reachable while the base stays stable. We present HuG, a framework for whole-body affordance-aware grasping with active perception that couples perception and action through a Perceive-Align-Grasp pipeline: belief-driven active perception resolves occlusion by treating viewpoint as an explicit decision variable; a point-cloud-conditioned affordance policy proposes whole-body grasps; and an affordance-aware alignment stage repositions the body to the most executable configuration. A key insight is that, on a floating base, kinematic validity is not enough: we curate training data with controller-in-the-loop dynamics simulation, rejecting 73% of kinematically valid grasps that would destabilize the deployment controller, so the policy learns kinodynamically feasible affordances. Trained entirely in simulation with zero real demonstrations, HuG attains 87.5% real-world success on a multi-level shelf task, generalizes to novel objects, and holds at least 73% success at every tested height. Beyond generalizing within its training distribution, the policy extrapolates spatially: at scale in simulation it succeeds at table heights well below any seen during training, indicating that kinodynamically filtered synthetic data grounds affordances in object geometry and whole-body feasibility rather than in memorized configurations.

cs.RO

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗
新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.37037HF 社区推荐

Zooming without Zooming v2: From Seeing Details to Connecting Evidence for Generalizable Multimodal Perception

Lai Wei, Yatai Li, Liangbo He, Jun Lan, Renjie Gu, Linhan Cao, Junkai Lin, Huijia Zhu 等 13 位作者

原文摘要

Multimodal perception forms the foundation of multimodal intelligence. In particular, spatial perception and multimodal long-context understanding are two pivotal tasks that underpin embodied AI and multimodal agents. However, synthesizing targeted, high-quality training data for these tasks remains difficult and costly. Our key insight is that these tasks share an underlying capability, which we call connecting evidence: identifying relevant visual facts, binding them to the correct entities, recovering their relations, and composing them into an answer. Crucially, targeted training data are far easier to synthesize for this capability than for these tasks themselves. To strengthen this capability, we propose EvidenceConnect, an easy-to-implement data synthesis framework that uses zoomed views of related regions within a single image to generate questions requiring comparison, aggregation, or chaining of visual evidence. To ensure quality, a reference answer is retained only when independent VLMs agree on it, and region-ablation tests discard questions whose answer survives the removal of selected regions. We then train base VLMs on the resulting data with RLVR, obtaining Zooming without Zooming v2 (ZwZ2). Although the synthesized data are not tailored to any downstream benchmark, ZwZ2 improves fine-grained and spatial perception, with further gains on embodied spatial reasoning, multimodal long-context understanding, multimodal agent tasks, and general visual reasoning. These results establish EvidenceConnect as an effective framework for supervising evidence connection and suggest that strengthening this shared capability leads to more generalizable multimodal perception.

cs.CV · cs.AI · cs.CL · cs.LG

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗
版本更新 · v3arXiv:2509.06503Google Research

An AI system to help scientists write expert-level empirical software

Eser Aygün, Anastasiya Belyaeva, Gheorghe Comanici, Marc Coram, Hao Cui, Jake Garrison, Renee Johnston Anton Kast, Cory Y. McLean 等 42 位作者

原文摘要

The cycle of scientific discovery is frequently bottlenecked by the slow, manual creation of software to support computational experiments\cite{hannay2009how}. To address this, we present Empirical Research Assistance (ERA), an AI system that creates expert-level scientific software whose goal is to maximize a quality metric. The system uses a Large Language Model (LLM) and Tree Search (TS)\cite{silver2016mastering} to systematically improve the quality metric and intelligently navigate the large space of possible solutions. ERA achieves expert-level results when it explores and integrates complex research ideas from external sources. The effectiveness of tree search is demonstrated across a diverse range of tasks. In bioinformatics, ERA discovered 40 novel methods for single-cell data analysis that outperformed the top human-developed methods on a public leaderboard. In epidemiology, ERA generated 14 models that outperformed the CDC ensemble and all other individual models for forecasting COVID-19 hospitalizations. ERA also produced expert-level software for geospatial analysis, neural activity prediction in zebrafish, and numerical solution of integrals, and a novel rule-based construction for time series forecasting. By devising and implementing novel solutions to diverse tasks, ERA represents a significant step towards accelerating scientific progress.

cs.AI · q-bio.QM

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗