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arXiv 最近完成扫描:2026-11-15 01:33 · 全站最近入库:2026-11-14 15:09各信源进度 →

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版本更新 · v2arXiv:2607.24984

Automatic Knowledge Graph Construction and Query for Earthquake Catalogs

Yuxin Zhou, Huai Zhang, S. Mostafa Mousavi

原文摘要

In recent years, the number of events in earthquake catalogs has significantly increased due to the utilization of more effective deep learning based detectors and phase pickers but answering open ended questions such as what characterizes this sequence? remains constrained by rigid spatiotemporal windowing and subjective expert interpretation. We present the first systematic application of graph based retrieval augmented generation GraphRAG directly to raw, tabular catalog records across three independently featured catalogs, a reservoir adjacent swarm, the 2019 Ridgecrest tectonic sequence, and the 2021 Maduo Mw7.4 aftershock sequence. Without the need for manual data structuring, the pipeline builds structurally complete, queryable knowledge graphs for all three. Rigorous evaluation individually verified against catalog derived ground truth and a rule based reference graph exposes failure modes, and four seismology informed prompt fixes eliminate all targeted fabrications while sharply improving mechanism reasoning. A vector RAG baseline demonstrates the graph layers distinctive value, catalog wide summarization and temporal stage comparison. In addition, we have identified two main pitfalls that need attention. GraphRAG thus offers a practical, transferable, near zero cost query interface for earthquake catalogs, where careful prompting ensures the results are consistently accurate and trustworthy.

physics.geo-ph · cs.AI · cs.LG

新论文 · v1arXiv:2611.15598

Imputing Missing Near-Surface Air Temperature using Graph Attention Networks with Distance-Aware Edge Features

Emma C. Weber, Dominique Guillot, Daniyar Abykhanov, Julien Emile-Geay

原文摘要

We introduce a graph attention network for reconstructing near-surface air temperature fields from incomplete observations. The model represents each grid cell as a node connected to its $k$ nearest neighbors, with attention weights that depend on node features, distance, and land-ocean transitions. This graph representation avoids the polar distortions associated with treating the globe as a flat latitude-longitude image, as most deep learning reconstruction methods do. This is particularly relevant for historical temperature records, which extend back to the mid-nineteenth century but remain incomplete, with the largest gaps early in the record and at high latitudes. We train our model on CMIP6 CESM2 historical simulations masked with the time-varying HadCRUT5 observational coverage from 1850 to 2014. We then compare our approach with ordinary kriging, GraphEM, and the LaMa inpainting network on a held-out realization. The graph model achieves the lowest spatial RMSE (0.997 K), 10.1% lower than LaMa and approximately 31% lower than kriging and GraphEM. The largest gains occur in the Arctic and Antarctic, while LaMa remains slightly more accurate in the densely observed tropics. The graph model's error also falls faster as coverage increases, so its advantage over LaMa grows by more than a third from the 1850s to the 2000s. An ablation study shows that the model's skill comes mainly from the geometric graph construction rather than from auxiliary physical covariates.

cs.LG · physics.geo-ph

新论文 · v1arXiv:2611.14922

A Transferable Pretrained 3D Model for Impedance Inversion with Sparse-Well Prior Conditioning

Gen Li, Zhaoyun Zong, Diqiong Jiang, Man Tang

原文摘要

Deep-learning-based seismic impedance inversion commonly requires retraining for each target survey, which may generalize poorly beyond the conditioning locations when well control is extremely sparse. We propose a transferable three-dimensional inversion framework that separates offline learning from target-survey deployment. A masked autoencoder first learns seismic structural representations from unlabeled multi-survey data, after which the frozen encoder is incorporated into an inversion network trained on synthetic geological models with sparse-well-derived low-frequency priors. During deployment, the complete inversion network remains fixed; the available conditioning well is used only to construct the low-frequency prior and align the global impedance range. Experiments on the Overthrust model show that the proposed method achieves the lowest full-volume NRMSE and reduces the P95 trace-wise NRMSE from 0.1310 to 0.1074 relative to the best target-trained baseline, indicating fewer localized large errors under different well locations. In a field survey with one conditioning well and three blind wells, it reduces the mean blind-well NRMSE by 20.95% relative to the target-trained U-Net while maintaining the highest correlation. These results demonstrate that the proposed framework transfers useful impedance information beyond the conditioning location with low deployment cost and without retraining the inversion network.

cs.LG · physics.geo-ph

新论文 · v1arXiv:2611.13346

Advancing Mass-Conserving Deep Learning for Distributed Hydrologic Modeling: A Case Study in a Snow-Dominated Watershed

Yihan Wang, Lujun Zhang, N. Benjamin Erichson, Yang Hong, Tiantian Yang

原文摘要

Recent progress in physics-aware deep learning (DL) has embedded mass conservation within Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architecture for hydrologic modeling, improving physical consistency and enabling diagnostics of internal states. However, existing mass-conserving neural networks are primarily developed in lumped formulations. Consequently, previous studies provide only fragmented and often indirect evidence of when and why imposed physical constraints may lead to unrealistic hydrologic behavior. To address this limitation, we propose Physics-Enhanced Conservation-Augmented Net (PECAN), a mass-conserving convolutional LSTM-based framework for distributed hydrologic modeling and diagnosing structural limitations of physics-aware DL models. PECAN is implemented in two variants: (1) PECAN-MC with a strict precipitation-based conservation constraint and (2) PECAN-MCR with a relaxed conservation constraint allowing additional water inputs beyond precipitation. Both variants are trained solely on gauge streamflow and evaluated in a snow-dominated watershed in Colorado. We benchmark PECAN against lumped DL baselines and the distributed process-based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Results show that PECAN achieves competitive outlet streamflow simulation accuracy while producing spatially explicit latent states for interpretation. Comparisons with reference soil moisture indicate that PECAN cell states resemble meaningful temporal soil moisture dynamics. However, analyses also reveal that PECAN misrepresents snow processes by prematurely removing winter snow water storage from the system rather than retaining it for spring release. PECAN demonstrates accurate streamflow simulation at gauges and shows diagnostic potential to expose structural limitations in hydrologic process representation, thereby informing future physics-aware neural network development for hydrology.

cs.LG · physics.geo-ph

版本更新 · v3arXiv:2512.13197

Parameter-Efficient Transfer Learning for Microseismic Phase Picking Using a Neural Operator

Ayrat Abdullin, Umair Bin Waheed, Leo Eisner, Naveed Iqbal

原文摘要

Seismic phase picking is fundamental for microseismic monitoring and subsurface imaging. Manual processing is impractical for real-time applications and large sensor arrays, motivating the use of deep learning-based pickers trained on extensive earthquake catalogs. On a broader scale, these models are generally tuned to perform optimally in high signal-to-noise and long-duration networks and often fail to perform satisfactorily when applied to campaign-based microseismic datasets, which are characterized by low signal-to-noise ratios, sparse geometries, and limited labeled data. In this study, we present a microseismic adaptation of a network-wide earthquake phase picker, Phase Neural Operator (PhaseNO), using transfer learning and parameter-efficient fine-tuning. Starting from a model pre-trained on more than 57,000 three-component earthquake and noise records, we fine-tune it using only 200 labeled and noisy microseismic recordings from hydraulic fracturing settings. We present a parameter-efficient adaptation of PhaseNO that fine-tunes a small fraction of its parameters (only 3.6%) while retaining its global spatiotemporal representations learned from a large dataset of earthquake recordings. We then evaluate our adapted model on three independent microseismic datasets and compare its performance against the original pre-trained PhaseNO, a STA/LTA-based workflow, and two state-of-the-art deep learning models, PhaseNet and EQTransformer. We demonstrate that our adapted model significantly outperforms the original PhaseNO in F1 and accuracy metrics, achieving up to 30% absolute improvements in all test sets and consistently performing better than STA/LTA and state-of-the-art models. With our adaptation being based on a small calibration set, our proposed workflow is a practical and efficient tool to deploy network-wide models in data-limited microseismic applications.

physics.geo-ph · cs.LG

新论文 · v1arXiv:2611.11681

A Sequential Monte Carlo Method for Data Assimilation in Subsurface Flow Systems with Hierarchical Uncertainty

Wenchao Teng, Guido Di Federico, Louis J. Durlofsky

原文摘要

Subsurface flow systems often involve hierarchical geological uncertainty, meaning both higher-level metaparameters and cell-by-cell properties are uncertain. This leads to challenges for data assimilation because both sets of parameters must be estimated. In this work we develop an adaptive-tempered sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) procedure for joint Bayesian estimation of these quantities. The method uses noncentered geological parameterizations, with geomodel realizations represented by metaparameters and Gaussian latent variables that are independent under the prior. Adaptive likelihood tempering, importance weighting, resampling, and blockwise Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) mutation are applied at each iteration. Flow surrogates are used for all function evaluations. The hierarchical SMC procedure is further extended to treat successive data assimilation. In this case, existing posterior particles are updated in a manner that accounts for correlations in surrogate model errors across observation batches. We consider two distinct 3D systems with hierarchical uncertainty. The first is a faulted carbon storage system containing three stacked aquifers and two extensive faults. Principal component analysis is used to represent target-aquifer heterogeneity, while geological metaparameters characterize uncertain aquifer and fault properties. The second is a channelized oil-water system containing three facies with uncertain properties. A latent diffusion model represents variability in channel geometry and facies realizations. For the four synthetic true models considered, SMC posterior metaparameter distributions and flow predictions agree closely with reference MCMC results. SMC, however, requires fewer function evaluations and provides speedups of 2.5--7.0 for single-stage data assimilation. Even greater speedups are achieved with multiple GPUs.

physics.geo-ph · cs.LG

新论文 · v1arXiv:2611.11563

HydroTuring: A physics probe benchmark testing mass, energy, and momentum conservation in hydrologic models

Zhi Li, Changming Li, Siavash Shams, Han Wang, Qingyi Yang, Yuanhang Liu, Taiqi Lian, Xin Lan 等 20 位作者

原文摘要

Hydrologic models, including deep learning systems now deployed for operational flood forecasting, are evaluated primarily by how closely their simulated hydrographs match observed streamflow. However, high hydrograph skill does not guarantee physical consistency: in a synthetic calibration experiment, a conceptual model that loses 15% of its water input to an unreported sink still reaches a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.93, and no shared benchmark tests whether models obey fundamental conservation laws. Here we introduce HydroTuring (v0.1.0), a black-box benchmark of 37 physics probes that test mass (24 probes), energy (7) and momentum (6) conservation in hydrologic models. Each probe runs a controlled experiment on forcing generated at run time from a recorded seed and applies binary pass or fail criteria validated against 18 physically exact and 59 deliberately broken reference models. Across 32 evaluated models (3 exact references, 7 AI-based models and 22 process-based models), only the 3 exact references pass every probe among the 28 models scored on 5 or more probes. Process-based and AI-based models pass similar shares of their scored probes (76% and 74%), and a pre-trained flood-forecasting LSTM fails 6 of the 11 runoff-only probes it can be scored on. Furthermore, 49% of all 1,184 model-probe pairs remain unscored because models omit the required state or flux variables, while the scored failures occur in perturbation responses and state bounds rather than long-term water-budget closure. HydroTuring provides a reproducible smoke test for model development, peer review and operational deployment under an open community protocol.

physics.geo-ph · cs.AI · cs.LG · physics.app-ph

新论文 · v1arXiv:2611.11398

Decomposing Earth Embeddings with Sparse Autoencoders

Vitus Benson, Fanny Yang, Markus Reichstein

原文摘要

Earth observation foundation models produce global metre-resolution embeddings that underpin work across agriculture, ecology, hydrology, and beyond. Yet these embeddings are opaque: each dimension entangles unrelated physical concepts, which makes them difficult to interpret and their robustness hard to assess. Here, we propose sparse autoencoders (SAEs) as a principled way to decompose Earth embeddings into sparse, approximately monosemantic features over an overcomplete dictionary. Because LLM judges of interpretations do not transfer to satellite pixels, and spatial autocorrelation matters, we introduce a tailored evaluation protocol. It scores any SAE on reconstruction at matched sparsity, alignment with reference concepts, and spatial scale, each against baselines that include an SAE whose decoder is a frozen random dictionary. On this protocol, SAEs reconstruct AlphaEarth and Tessera embeddings better than every baseline at matched sparsity. Their features align with far fewer reference concepts than raw embedding dimensions (on AlphaEarth, 88% align with at most one of 20 concept groups, most with none, against a median of 12 per raw dimension). They also carry more of their variance at fine spatial scales (23 to 32% within a 640 m patch for BatchTopK and Matryoshka, against 9%). An SAE with a frozen random decoder shares both properties, which therefore follow from sparsity, whereas only a learned dictionary reconstructs the embedding accurately: on AlphaEarth, trained SAEs leave eight times less variance unexplained. We test the sparse code on two applications, discovering land-cover sub-concepts and detecting out-of-distribution pixels by area-of-applicability estimation. Both indicate how sparse features could be used, but neither is yet reliable enough for practical use. Together, these results are a step toward Earth observation models whose features can be inspected.

cs.LG · cs.CV · physics.geo-ph

新论文 · v1arXiv:2611.09854

超分辨率数字地形模型用于GEDI地理定位校正:在波束层面而非足迹层面与机载LiDAR DTM校正一致

Super-resolved digital terrain models for GEDI geolocation correction: agreement with airborne LiDAR DTM-based corrections at the beam level, not the footprint level

Natsuki Yuda, Shinichiro Shirota

AI 速读 基于摘要

作者报告,将10米分辨率DTM与全球30米DTM融合并超分辨率到1米后,用于GEDI定位校正,在多数航迹层面得到的位移与机载LiDAR DTM校正接近,但单观测层面不一致。

eess.IV · cs.CV · physics.geo-ph

查看原文摘要

The Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) mission measures three-dimensional forest structure with a LiDAR aboard the International Space Station. GEDI observations have geolocation errors of about 10 m, which cause misalignment with other remote sensing data and reduce the accuracy of downstream tasks. Matching GEDI ground elevations against high-resolution digital terrain models (DTMs) from airborne LiDAR is one way to correct these errors, but such DTMs exist in few regions. To widen this method's applicability, we super-resolved a more widely available low-resolution DTM and used it for the matching. Our question is whether a super-resolved DTM yields the same correction as a 1 m-resolution airborne LiDAR DTM and, if not, why. In steep forests of western Japan, we super-resolved an existing 10 m-resolution DTM to 1 m. Improving its accuracy required fusion with a global 30 m-resolution DTM from a different source. Using the resulting DTM, we corrected GEDI observation positions first by a single shift per ground track, then per observation. For most tracks, the shifts nearly matched those from the airborne LiDAR DTM, likely because DTM errors canceled out across many observations. Per-observation corrections, however, did not match. At a single observation, the error does not cancel out and is too large for the correction. This error likely originates mainly from the input DTM. Therefore, even without a 1 m-resolution DTM, a roughly 10 m-resolution DTM, fused with a global DTM and super-resolved to 1 m, should yield track-wise corrections nearly matching those from a 1 m-resolution DTM.

新论文 · v1arXiv:2611.06382

From hydrological laws to catchment models: A process-based model matches deep-learning accuracy on three continents

Xilin Xia

原文摘要

Dooge asked whether hydrology has laws at the catchment scale. We ask whether a low-dimensional system built under physical laws can match the accuracy of neural networks that outperform process-based models on the same inputs. Three laws constrain a lumped catchment model. Conservation makes it a flux-connected storage network, dissipation fixes the sign of every flux and aggregation determines how the unresolved composition enters the fluxes, through effective laws over threshold distributions and a memory of the forcing. These laws admit four kinds of refinement. A parsimonious model under them, CaRT (11 parameters per catchment), is refined in a loop assisted by AI agents. Each refinement addresses an observed deficit through a hypothesis from the literature. The result, CaRT+, has fourteen states, 35 parameters per catchment and no daily neural network. Most refinements follow from aggregation over thresholds or from variables that carry no water but modulate fluxes. On 602 British and 593 US gauged catchments, single CaRT+ models reach median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.863 and 0.765 in held-out years. A stateful LSTM reaches 0.869 and 0.751 and an entity-aware LSTM 0.862 and 0.754, while three-seed LSTM ensembles remain ahead of the CaRT+ ensemble by 0.003-0.012 in median paired NSE. On 505 drier Australian gauged catchments unused in development, single CaRT+ models reach 0.778 against 0.762 and 0.753 for the two LSTMs. The results suggest that catchment-scale laws exist as laws of form, with the constitutive families shared and only their parameters learned.

cs.LG · cs.AI · math.DS · physics.geo-ph

版本更新 · v2arXiv:2605.19379

Graph-based Automated Discovery of Concise Soil Hydraulic Functions from Data: Beyond Empirical Formulations

Hao Xu, Jinshen Sun, Yuntian Chen, Dongxiao Zhang

原文摘要

Soil hydraulic functions underpin water flow and transport modeling in the vadose zone, yet they are commonly represented by expert-designed formulations such as the Mualem-van Genuchten (MvG) model. Because these formulations rest on predefined functional assumptions, balancing predictive accuracy and parametric compactness across soil textures remains challenging. Here we introduce a graph-based equation discovery framework that distills soil hydraulic functions from experimental data. Reapplied to the original datasets that motivated the MvG parameterization, the framework recovers a concise water retention function together with an analytical unsaturated hydraulic conductivity expression whose mathematical structure departs from classical empirical forms. Evaluated across soils of contrasting texture, the discovered model predicts unsaturated hydraulic conductivity more accurately than MvG and its common variants, while its fitted parameters retain interpretable correlations with measurable soil physical properties. These findings suggest that data-driven discovery can yield compact, analytically tractable constitutive relations that move beyond fixed empirical formulations.

physics.flu-dyn · cs.SC · physics.geo-ph

新论文 · v1arXiv:2611.03381

A Geometry-Informed Neural Operator surrogate of LISFLOOD-FP for rapid pluvial-fluvial flood forecasting: the case of Forlì, Italy

Samuele Maria Garofalo, Fabio Limardo, Simonetta Bodojra, Mohammad Amin Nabian, Mehdi Taghizadeh

原文摘要

Physically based two-dimensional hydraulic models are too slow for real-time inundation forecasting and large ensembles. We present a time-dependent geometry-informed neural operator (GINO) surrogate of LISFLOOD-FP for the municipality of Forlì (Italy), severely affected by the May 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The surrogate is designed for an operational setting in which only river stage gauges and rain gauges are available. A reproducible pipeline turns public regional observations into a physically based training set: each river inflow is driven by the first stage gauge downstream of it through a calibrated water-surface boundary condition, and rain enters as SCS-CN effective rainfall. The surrogate is an autoregressive GINO trained on 216 simulations of 24 observed events with scaled forcing. It predicts volume-conserving polygon-mean depths on an exposure-based Voronoi mesh of 659 nodes, with a 20 min step over 72 h. The surrogate is tested on 38 independent observed events that it never saw during training. On these events it reaches a critical success index (CSI) of 0.934 at 0.05m and 0.844 at 0.3 m, a depth RMSE of 0.008m and an $R^2$ of 0.984 for maximum-depth maps. On one NVIDIA A10G GPU a 72-h forecast takes 1.7 s instead of 55 s with LISFLOOD-FP, and a 50-member ensemble, computed in a single batched rollout, takes 6.2 s instead of about 46 min, which makes probabilistic flood forecasting practical. These results show that neural-operator surrogates can deliver accurate pluvial-fluvial flood forecasts driven by river stage for operational early warning.

cs.LG · physics.geo-ph

新论文 · v1arXiv:2611.03264

DeepWaveRL: Self-Supervised Full Waveform Inversion via Reinforcement Learning

Peng Jin, Yinan Feng, Yinpeng Chen, Youzuo Lin, Sharon Huang

原文摘要

Full Waveform Inversion (FWI) is a fundamental inverse problem in geophysics to estimate subsurface properties, such as velocity, from seismic measurements. Recently, self-supervised learning methods remove the need for ground-truth velocity maps during training by leveraging a forward operator to simulate seismic data from predictions and backpropagate the gradients of reconstruction loss through it. In this work, we consider a more challenging setting without accessing such gradients. To this end, we incorporate reinforcement learning into self-supervised FWI and propose a framework named DeepWaveRL. Specifically, we reformulate FWI as a policy learning problem, where the policy network predicts velocity maps as actions, and a forward operator is used solely for simulation. A global scalar reward is computed based on data misfit for each prediction and used to weight policy gradients. Thus, learning proceeds without accessing the gradients from the forward operator. Given the indirect and coarse supervision signals, we further identify key strategies to stabilize learning and mitigate the spatial credit assignment bottleneck. Experimental results show that, despite relying entirely on a single scalar reward, DeepWaveRL achieves competitive performance compared to supervised and self-supervised baselines. These findings suggest that our framework offers a flexible and complementary learning paradigm for the FWI research community.

cs.LG · physics.geo-ph

版本更新 · v2arXiv:2607.23983

Community HydroAgent: Formalizing Forecaster Expertise into Skill-Orchestrated Flood Forecasting Workflows

Qingyi Yang, Siqian Qiu, Bing Li, Xu Shan, Jia Feng, Shunan Zhou, Xudong Zhou, Tiantian Xing 等 23 位作者

原文摘要

Operational flood forecasting depends on tacit forecaster expertise that is difficult to formalize, audit, and transfer. Although artificial intelligence methods have advanced flood prediction and model-error correction, few studies explicitly represent the tacit expert rules, review checkpoints, and workflow constraints that connect model outputs to operational warning decisions. Here, we propose Community HydroAgent for Flood Forecasting (CHA-Flood), a skill-orchestrated agent framework that embeds Large Language Models (LLMs) into a model-driven flood forecasting workflow, where each skill encodes explicit rules to bound LLM reasoning. We validated its effectiveness using five state-of-the-art LLMs in the South Yamhill River basin (USA). Prior judgment captures observed peak flow and flood volume within 5% tolerance in 10 and 11 out of 14 events, and 5-fold cross-validation over 129 events yields Pearson correlations of 0.62 and 0.84. Building on a high-baseline scheme library (average KGE 0.890), the guided scheme selection further improves KGE by 0.023-0.154. All five tested LLMs successfully execute the CHA-Flood workflow with comparable judgment accuracy (each spanning 40%-80% across cross-validation folds) but with substantial cost differences. Removing only the language-model narrowing lowers median KGE from 0.723-0.753 to 0.662 for all five LLMs, indicating that the gain comes from LLM reasoning rather than from the choice of LLM. CHA-Flood does not aim to replace human forecasters; instead, it translates their tacit expertise into an auditable and reproducible workflow. This skill-orchestrated paradigm demonstrates how explicit rule boundaries can guide LLM reasoning to complement physically based simulation in next-generation flood forecasting.

physics.geo-ph · cs.LG

版本更新 · v2arXiv:2610.36410

Expert lithological labels do not improve learning when used to predict marine sediment properties

John M. Aiken, William Gilpin, Thorsten W. Becker

原文摘要

Scientific drilling has produced large archives of physical, chemical and magnetic measurements linked to descriptions of the rock recovered. These archives are mostly incomplete: instruments sample at different intervals, recovery is partial, and destructive analyses preclude later measurement of the same material. We train an self-supervised embedding model on the LILY ocean drilling database using six routinely logged properties (bulk density, magnetic susceptibility, natural gamma radiation, and red, green and blue reflectance) across 236,963 observations from 296 boreholes, with a masked variational autoencoder that has a heteroscedastic Gaussian decoder and learnable mask tokens. The embeddings separate geologist-assigned lithologies as well as a variant trained with those labels, and increasing the weight on the labels degrades reconstruction while leaving classification unchanged. The labels are recoverable from the measurements geologists use to assign them, so training on them adds nothing. Lithological categories compress continuous measurements into classes, and compressing them discards what the measurements record about the processes that produced the rock. The embeddings also predict physical properties that were absent from training, on boreholes the model has never seen. While depth should account for this since sediments compact with burial, it does not. On held-out boreholes depth alone reaches a median $R^2$ of -0.02, against 0.20 for the embedding.

physics.geo-ph · cs.AI

新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.38047

Forward-Backward Map Matching for Airborne Magnetic Anomaly Navigation

Joseph O'Leary, Tapio Simula, Tom Kimpson, Corey Davey, Wenchao Li, Andrew D. Greentree, Allison Kealy

原文摘要

Airborne magnetic anomaly navigation provides a passive, unjammable alternative to Global Navigation Satellite Systems positioning by matching magnetometer measurements against a lithospheric magnetic anomaly map. Existing map-matching algorithms either assume a Gaussian posterior (extended Kalman filter), require Monte Carlo sampling (particle filter), or discard posterior uncertainty in favour of a single optimal path (Viterbi algorithm). Here we formulate map matching as inference on a chain-structured factor graph and solve it segment by segment using the forward-backward algorithm, which yields a discrete posterior over candidate positions and its Shannon entropy $H_t$ at time $t$. Over the \texttt{Renfrew\_395} map, $10^3$ synthetic trials yield a median position error of $32.7$ m, $91\%$ below the median inertial drift of $362$ m. On these trials and $10^3$ flight paths, the median error is $43\%$ below the extended Kalman filter and particle filter. Across these paths, a threshold on segment-level entropy detects $47\%$ of segments with errors above two map cells and $94\%$ of those above three, at a $10\%$ false-alarm rate. The foregoing results indicate that $H_t$ provides a truth-free diagnostic of map-conditioned navigation ambiguity.

eess.SP · cs.RO · physics.geo-ph

新论文 · v1arXiv:2504.12559Google Research

Fine Flood Forecasts: Incorporating local data into global models through fine-tuning

Emil Ryd, Grey Nearing

原文摘要

Floods are the most common form of natural disaster and accurate flood forecasting is essential for early warning systems. Previous work has shown that machine learning (ML) models are a promising way to improve flood predictions when trained on large, geographically-diverse datasets. This requirement of global training can result in a loss of ownership for national forecasters who cannot easily adapt the models to improve performance in their region, preventing ML models from being operationally deployed. Furthermore, traditional hydrology research with physics-based models suggests that local data -- which in many cases is only accessible to local agencies -- is valuable for improving model performance. To address these concerns, we demonstrate a methodology of pre-training a model on a large, global dataset and then fine-tuning that model on data from individual basins. This results in performance increases, validating our hypothesis that there is extra information to be captured in local data. In particular, we show that performance increases are most significant in watersheds that underperform during global training. We provide a roadmap for national forecasters who wish to take ownership of global models using their own data, aiming to lower the barrier to operational deployment of ML-based hydrological forecast systems.

cs.LG · physics.geo-ph