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新论文 · v1arXiv:2611.11110

Statopia: A Prover--Library Ecosystem for Automated Formalization and Proof Discovery in Statistics

Ziyuan Chen, Tong Gan, Wei Zhang, Ruofei Fang, Boyue Tang, Zhenhua Lin, Fang Yao

原文摘要

Theoretical results in statistics and machine learning rest on long, technically delicate proofs, and fluent arguments generated by large language models are not necessarily correct. Automated formalization makes such arguments mechanically checkable, and automated proving goes further by discovering machine-checked proofs for statements whose proofs are incomplete or missing altogether. Both require reconstructing assumptions from source materials, accessing specialized mathematical infrastructure and managing long proof developments. We present Statopia, an ecosystem that jointly develops Statopia Prover, an independent agent specialized for formalizing and proving results in statistics and machine learning, and Statlib, a Lean~4 library built with the prover and organized for automated use. The prover controls its own execution without relying on external coding agents. It is built for formal proof discovery and checking existing proofs. A natural-language proof, when available, guides its search but is not required: from a statement alone, the prover develops the argument itself and constructs a Lean proof. Its workflow integrates source preparation, statement review, library supported planning and proof construction. Dynamic proof dependency graphs and task groups support parallel, resumable proof development. Statlib's shared definitions and theorem interfaces are organized for retrieval and composition by agents, and its coverage of statistics keeps expanding. Verified results and usage feedback from the prover inform reviewed library updates, so that proof development drives this expansion. A cross-platform application provides an interactive workspace for uploading source files and running tasks locally or in the cloud.

stat.CO · cs.AI

新论文 · v1arXiv:2611.09780

LLM排行榜中的策略竞争与趋同

Strategic Competition and Convergence in LLM Leaderboards

Naveen Raman, Fei Fang, Yiling Chen

AI 速读 基于摘要

作者将排行榜竞争建模为开发者在不同能力上分配资源的博弈,分析能力画像趋同(单一化)与性能水平收敛的条件,并用LM Arena和OpenRouter数据做经验观察。

cs.GT · cs.CY · cs.SE

查看原文摘要

Leaderboards are a popular way to compare large language model (LLM) capabilities and can influence how model developers invest resources. We ask when competition on leaderboards leads developers to produce models with similar capability profiles, which we call monoculture, or similar performance levels. We study this by formulating leaderboard competition as a game in which model developers invest resources across capabilities to maximize their win rate. We show that similar production functions can induce similar capability profiles, while comparative advantage can sustain distinct capability profiles. We then study convergence in performance levels and show that diminishing returns can lead to an increasingly crowded competitive frontier. Using data from LM Arena and OpenRouter, we find that developers improve more in categories where they lag competitors, while still retaining category-specific advantages. At the same time, we find that the frontier of models becomes increasingly crowded, alongside increasingly diversified model usage patterns. Our results suggest that increasing competition does not need to produce interchangeable models, but can instead sustain competitive models with distinct strengths.