← 研踪 PaperTrailarXiv:2605.29768 · v3
From XXLTraffic to EvoXXLTraffic: Scaling Traffic Forecasting to Sensor-Evolving Networks
从XXLTraffic到EvoXXLTraffic：将交通预测扩展到传感器演化网络
首次提交 2026-05-28 19:13
版本更新 2026-11-13 02:17
雷达观测 2026-11-13 14:15
摘要
Traffic forecasting benchmarks commonly fix the sensor set, although deployed sensing networks change their coverage over time. We present EvoXXLTraffic, a sensor-evolving extension of the XXLTraffic dataset family, with yearly sensor catalogs, persistent station IDs, flow matrices, and geographic graph snapshots across nine California PeMS districts, spanning up to 27 years. The benchmark separates all-sensor forecasting from supervised adaptation to sensors absent from the preceding year. We evaluate 13 baseline adaptations on PEMS04 with five seeds and PEMS05 with three seeds, and seven of them on the other seven districts with three seeds. Each yearly task uses 31 stored days, explicit observation masks, and chronological evaluation. Under the frozen configurations, PECPM has the lowest full-horizon mean MAE on both all-sensor and new-node populations on PEMS04, while Online-AN leads both populations on PEMS05. Among the seven methods run on every district, Online-AN has the lowest all-sensor mean MAE in eight of the nine districts, and Online-NN has the lowest new-node mean MAE in six. A matched control on PEMS05 and PEMS06 finds that training on the evolving catalog changes mean MAE on the sensors present in every 2018-2025 catalog by less than 1% in either direction. Method ordering depends on district, evaluation population, horizon, and metric, and seed variation does not establish statistical significance. The benchmark documents implementation adaptations and uses retrospective geographic graphs, limiting claims about original-paper rankings and prospective deployment. Inherited fixed-sensor gap and hourly/daily tasks provide complementary temporal settings. Code and results: https://github.com/cruiseresearchgroup/TSAS26-EvoXXLTraffic. Data: https://huggingface.co/datasets/yind7/EvoXXLTraffic.
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v3 · 2026-11-13 02:17 · 最新观测版本
From XXLTraffic to EvoXXLTraffic: Scaling Traffic Forecasting to Sensor-Evolving Networks
Traffic forecasting benchmarks commonly fix the sensor set, although deployed sensing networks change their coverage over time. We present EvoXXLTraffic, a sensor-evolving extension of the XXLTraffic dataset family, with yearly sensor catalogs, persistent station IDs, flow matrices, and geographic graph snapshots across nine California PeMS districts, spanning up to 27 years. The benchmark separates all-sensor forecasting from supervised adaptation to sensors absent from the preceding year. We evaluate 13 baseline adaptations on PEMS04 with five seeds and PEMS05 with three seeds, and seven of them on the other seven districts with three seeds. Each yearly task uses 31 stored days, explicit observation masks, and chronological evaluation. Under the frozen configurations, PECPM has the lowest full-horizon mean MAE on both all-sensor and new-node populations on PEMS04, while Online-AN leads both populations on PEMS05. Among the seven methods run on every district, Online-AN has the lowest all-sensor mean MAE in eight of the nine districts, and Online-NN has the lowest new-node mean MAE in six. A matched control on PEMS05 and PEMS06 finds that training on the evolving catalog changes mean MAE on the sensors present in every 2018-2025 catalog by less than 1% in either direction. Method ordering depends on district, evaluation population, horizon, and metric, and seed variation does not establish statistical significance. The benchmark documents implementation adaptations and uses retrospective geographic graphs, limiting claims about original-paper rankings and prospective deployment. Inherited fixed-sensor gap and hourly/daily tasks provide complementary temporal settings. Code and results: https://github.com/cruiseresearchgroup/TSAS26-EvoXXLTraffic. Data: https://huggingface.co/datasets/yind7/EvoXXLTraffic.
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