← 研踪 PaperTrailarXiv:2611.10414 · v1
Track or Follow? A Jev-Compatible Multi-Agent Trading System When Web News Lags the Market
首次提交 2026-11-07 10:47
版本更新 2026-11-07 10:47
雷达观测 2026-11-10 10:11
摘要
LLM agents increasingly trade on the Web news they read, yet much Web news about listed firms is published after, and about, the price move it reports, so a reader can agree with the market by following it instead of reading the event. We ask whether LLM judgments of Web news track the market's reaction to the reported event or follow it. To answer, we built a multi-agent trading system whose agents share only point-in-time stores and answer typed questions through the interface of Jev, a hosted typed decision model; code sets every position under a proved bound on how far text can move it. In a hash-committed test of a Jev-compatible reader built from a pinned LLM's option probabilities, item judgments track announcement-window abnormal returns (weekly Spearman 0.119), also after the LLM's release, and event types agree with the issuers' 8-K filings (AUC 0.833); Jev's judgments of news published after its own release track the reaction as well (descriptive). Exploratory analyses show where the association comes from: 72% of earnings news items appear after the issuer's filing, contributor-written items often report the price move, and from the first trade after publication the association falls to 0.023. At a weekly horizon, the confirmatory test detects no rank information over code-only features. Under attack, decision cards traced 88% of successful attacks to the planted item. We propose that market-graded tests of Web-text readers report the criterion from publication, not only from the event.
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v1 · 2026-11-07 10:47 · 最新观测版本
Track or Follow? A Jev-Compatible Multi-Agent Trading System When Web News Lags the Market
LLM agents increasingly trade on the Web news they read, yet much Web news about listed firms is published after, and about, the price move it reports, so a reader can agree with the market by following it instead of reading the event. We ask whether LLM judgments of Web news track the market's reaction to the reported event or follow it. To answer, we built a multi-agent trading system whose agents share only point-in-time stores and answer typed questions through the interface of Jev, a hosted typed decision model; code sets every position under a proved bound on how far text can move it. In a hash-committed test of a Jev-compatible reader built from a pinned LLM's option probabilities, item judgments track announcement-window abnormal returns (weekly Spearman 0.119), also after the LLM's release, and event types agree with the issuers' 8-K filings (AUC 0.833); Jev's judgments of news published after its own release track the reaction as well (descriptive). Exploratory analyses show where the association comes from: 72% of earnings news items appear after the issuer's filing, contributor-written items often report the price move, and from the first trade after publication the association falls to 0.023. At a weekly horizon, the confirmatory test detects no rank information over code-only features. Under attack, decision cards traced 88% of successful attacks to the planted item. We propose that market-graded tests of Web-text readers report the criterion from publication, not only from the event.
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