arXiv:2611.11688 · v1
Streaming Failure Forecasting: VLA Failure Monitors That Keep Learning After Deployment
摘要
Failure monitors for vision-language-action (VLA) policies are trained offline and then frozen. After deployment, lighting, objects and cameras drift, and the policy itself is updated or moved to new tasks. On recorded real-robot runs, after a switch of task or policy version, a frozen monitor fit on the old task ranks failures little better than chance. We present Streaming Failure Forecasting (SFF), a monitor that keeps learning from the one label every episode provides: whether it succeeded. SFF keeps the offline monitor's network fixed and refits only its last linear layer after each episode, at 2.18 ms per policy call on a Jetson CPU core. Its alarm threshold moves only after successes, which in simulation kept false alarms near target except when two drifts came at once. With every setting locked before testing, SFF ranks failures better than the same monitor kept frozen on 4 of 5 simulated test suites under unannounced drift, and above resetting on detected drift on every suite. Carried with its locked learner settings to 434 recorded runs of four VLAs on real SO-101 arms, replayed across unannounced switches of task or policy version, it ranks failures better than the frozen monitor for every VLA and, in an exploratory comparison, above a full reset at the true switch. A deployed failure monitor need not stay frozen: refitting its readout from outcomes is cheap and helps after the changes we tested.
作者备注：25 pages, 13 figures, 9 tables. A short version was accepted at the Sim2Real2Field and EEAI workshops at CoRL 2026. Project page: https://sff-research.org