不完整引用历史下纵向文献计量排名的可靠性评估
Assessing the Reliability of Longitudinal Bibliometric Rankings under Incomplete Citation Histories
João Paulo Papa
AI 速读 基于摘要
作者提出一个可复现的案例研究框架,用于审计引用历史缺口,并量化纵向指标与排名对缺失数据假设的敏感性。
cs.DL
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Longitudinal bibliometric analyses rely on annual citation histories, yet missing annual observations are frequently difficult to distinguish from true zero-citation years. We present a reproducible case-study framework for auditing citation-history gaps, tracing retrieval provenance, and quantifying the sensitivity of longitudinal indicators and rankings to explicit missing-data assumptions. The case study comprises 595 consolidated publications derived from 616 Google Scholar article records, and examines the completed calendar years 2024-2025. Three scenarios are compared: strictly observed annual counts (A), hypothetical zeros for internal gaps only (B), and hypothetical zeros for all missing years within a valid publication interval (C). The number of publications with computable growth and acceleration indicators increases from 196 (A) to 257 (B) and 490 (C); the corresponding counts for a revival indicator are 131, 152, and 177. Although the ordering of publications eligible under both compared scenarios is unchanged (Spearman and Kendall correlations equal to 1.0), complete-ranking positions and Top-K membership may change markedly. In particular, acceleration exhibits a Jaccard overlap of 0.563 at K=50 between A and C, while revival exhibits 0.667 at K=10. These findings demonstrate that unchanged indicator values and perfect correlations on a common subset do not guarantee stable rankings when eligibility changes. The zero assignments are hypothetical sensitivity assumptions, not evidence of provider semantics. The results are descriptive and based on a single researcher profile. A reusable Google Scholar Tracker software workflow supports the audit and sensitivity analysis; version 1.8.5 is publicly available on GitHub and archived on Zenodo (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.24170285).